Analyzing Economic Trends and Predictions for the 2030s

I've been writing about resilience, economics, and the movement of money since October 2023. Back then, I was looking at treasury reports, M2 velocity, and making predictions about where interest rates would go. Two years later, it's time to revisit those predictions and see what's actually happening.

In September 2023, the US ran a $171 billion monthly deficit with roughly $500 billion in receipts and $600 billion in outlays. For the full fiscal year, we had a $1.5 trillion deficit, $4.5 trillion in receipts, and $6 trillion in spending. I predicted back then that net interest would balloon into the top three spending categories as inflation drove rates higher.

Fast forward to September 2025. We had a $200 billion monthly surplus, $500 billion in receipts, and $350 billion in outlays. But for the full year, we're still running nearly a $2 trillion deficit with about $5.5 trillion in receipts and $7 trillion in spending. Net interest is approaching $1 trillion, sitting in fourth place and threatening to overtake Medicare and Social Security.

Here's what this means: regardless of which administration is in office, regardless of the political stories we hear, the fundamental fiscal picture remains the same. We're spending about $1 trillion more than we were two years ago, and we're bringing in about $1 trillion more in taxes. Nothing has fundamentally changed.